Australia’s economy holds the world record for the longest recession-free run thanks, in large part, to a record home-building boom that offset the pain of the mining bust.
But that boom is already past its peak and there is much worse to come, according to the latest Building in Australia forecast from BIS Oxford Economics.
“We won’t see it impact significantly over the next six months,” said the economic forecasting firm’s managing director, Robert Mellor.
“But as we move into 2018, particularly as those big high-rise apartment projects come off — commencements have been falling for nearly 12 months in Brisbane and they’ll start falling in Sydney and Melbourne — 12 months down the track, the level of work being undertaken will decline significantly.”
BIS Oxford is forecasting the number of dwelling starts will decline from a peak above 230,000 to a trough around 160,000 within three years — a 31 per cent slump.
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