Thursday, June 8, 2017

UK Election?: PM Corbyn, Theresa May resigns or a coalition of chaos – the possible outcomes

polling-station.jpgIn the wake of the extraordinary general election exit poll, here are the outcomes that still might happen. Conservative majority The exit poll figure for the Conservatives of 314 is only two below the 2015 figure of 316, when David Cameron ended the night with a slim majority. Such a result is still distinctly possible. In 2015 the Conservatives ended the night with 331. Anything less than that would be, unquestionably, a disaster for Theresa May.

A coalition with the Democratic Unionist Party may not be enough

The Northern Irish DUP would essentially join the Conservatives, but based on the exit poll results, that would not get Theresa May over the 326 line. The 18 Northern Irish constituencies are not part of the exit poll. In 2015 the DUP returned nine MPs. A similar number would be expected, but earlier this year their rivals, Sinn Fein, won the most seats in a Northern Ireland Assembly election for the first time ever. For the Conservatives and the DUP to get over the line together, the Conservatives will almost certainly need 317 or more.

MORE: Election results: Prime Minister Corbyn, Theresa May resigns or a coalition of chaos – the possible outcomes | The Independent


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